Saturday, March 3, 2018

Oscar Project 2018: Picks and Predictions!

Well, here we are. It's Oscar weekend! So I guess it's time to tell you what I want to win. For each category, you'll see links to my posts about each nominee, and then my prediction of what will actually win, my preference for what SHOULD win among those nominees, and in some cases my comments on what should have been nominated but wasn't. (Note: I'm 100% convinced that I'm forgetting A LOT of the other things I would have ideally nominated.)

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Best Picture:
The Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: The Shape of Water, though I keep going back and forth between that and Three Billboards
What Should Win: Call Me By Your Name, Call Me By Your Name, Call Me By Your Name
In a Perfect World... I'd have nominated Wind River and maybe The Florida Project in the place of Three Billboards and The Shape of Water.

Actor in a Leading Role:
The Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Get Out, Phantom Thread, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
What Will Win: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
What Should Win: I'm torn between Oldman and Timothee Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name.
In a Perfect World... I'd have nominated Jeremy Renner for Wind River in the place of Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Actor in a Supporting Role:
The Nominees: All the Money in the World, The Florida Project, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (twice over)
What Will Win: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards
What Should Win: Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
In a Perfect World... I am COMPLETELY FURIOUS that Three Billboards got TWO slots here and Call Me By Your Name got none. I would have nominated both Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg, and Hammer should have won.

Actress in a Leading Role:
The Nominees: I, Tonya, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards
What Should Win: Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
In a Perfect World... Daniela Vega should have been nominated for A Fantastic Woman.

Actress in a Supporting Role:
The Nominees:I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water
What Will Win: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
What Should Win: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird

Animated Feature Film:
The Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
What Will Win: Coco
What Should Win: Coco
In a Perfect World... Surely there was SOMETHING better than The Boss Baby to nominate.

Cinematography:
The Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
What Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Should Win: Dunkirk, though I wouldn't mind seeing the first female cinematography win for Mudbound.
In a Perfect World... I'd have nominated Call Me By Your Name and maybe Phantom Thread.

Costume Design:
The Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria & Abdul
What Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Should Win: Phantom Thread

Directing:
The Nominees: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water
What Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro for The Shape of Water
What Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
In a Perfect World... I'd have nominated Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Documentary (Feature):
The Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island
What Will Win: I'm torn between Icarus and Last Men in Aleppo.
What Should Win: Icarus, though there's no bad option here.

Documentary (Short Subject):
The Nominees: Edith+Eddie, Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Heroin(e), Knife Skills, Traffic Stop
What Will Win: Traffic Stop
What Should Win: Heroin(e)

Film Editing:
The Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Dunkirk, though I wouldn't be mad at Baby Driver or I, Tonya.

Foreign Language Film:
The Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square
What Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
What Should Win: A Fantastic Woman

Makeup & Hairstyling:
The Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria & Abdul, Wonder
What Will Win: Darkest Hour
What Should Win: Darkest Hour
In a Perfect World... I might have nominated Beauty and the Beast here.

Music (Original Score):
The Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: The Shape of Water
What Should Win: Phantom Thread
In a Perfect World... I'd have put Call Me By Your Name in the place of Three Billboards.

Music (Original Song):
The Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Marshall, Mudbound
What Will Win: "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
What Should Win: "Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
In a Perfect World... Well, "Visions of Gideon" was actually the better original Sufjan Stevens song in Call Me By Your Name.

Production Design:
The Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
What Will Win: The Shape of Water
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049, though both WWII movies are close seconds for me here.
In a Perfect World... Guess what, I'd put Call Me By Your Name here too.

Short Film (Animated):
The Nominees: Dear Basketball, Garden Party, LOU, Negative Space, Revolting Rhymes: Part I
What Will Win: Dear Basketball
What Should Win: Negative Space

Short Film (Live Action):
The Nominees: DeKalb Elementary, The Eleven O'Clock, My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Watu Wote/All of Us
What Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
What Should Win: My Nephew Emmett or The Silent Child

Sound Editing:
The Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Dunkirk

Sound Mixing:
The Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Dunkirk

Visual Effects:
The Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
What Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
The Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly's Game, Mudbound
What Will Win: Call Me By Your Name (This is the only category for which I'm letting myself hope.)
What Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Writing (Original Screenplay):
The Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: Get Out, though this is the category I'm having the most trouble predicting. I wouldn't be at all surprised by anything except The Big Sick here.
What Should Win: Anything but Three Billboards.

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